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Editorial: "Can we avoid dangerous climate change? Yes we can!" |
When writing this the snow is falling outside my window and we have a temperature of minus three degrees Celsius here in Stockholm. The TV-meteorologist is talking about even more snow and already in November it feels like a real winter. Warnings about climate change appear distant at the moment. But the global emissions of greenhouse gases continue to increase steadily. And scientists now warn that some climate change effects seem to unfold much faster than all previous scenarios from the UN expert panel on climate change, IPCC, have predicted. The rapid acceleration of ice melting in the Arctic, which has made the Arctic almost ice free in the summer at least five decades earlier than predicted, is one of many examples of what scientist call non-linear effects.
Last night I finished reading a new book written by one of Sweden’s leading climate scientists, Christian Azar, who was one of the lead authors of the Third Assessment Report of IPCC. The thin book, so far only available in Swedish, is important reading for everybody interested in climate change and what can be done about it. The book is written in an easy-to-read and jargon free style and explores what we know about climate change, the possible solutions, and – not the least – the political will to tackle one of the greatest challenges of humanity ever. Azar calls him self a “possibilist”. That is, he is neither pessimistic nor optimistic. He sees both many worrying and promising signs when it comes to the future of our planet’s climate. The future is uncertain, but we can be certain that it is shaped by our decisions. Our choices will decide whether emissions will increase or decrease, whether it will be peace or war, hunger or well-being, solar energy or coal. “It is possible. If we really want”, Azar writes.
Inadvertently, I come to think about another recent mantra: “Yes we can”. In a few months the most powerful country in the world is going to have a new leadership. A leader who has promised to cut US carbon dioxide emissions 80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050 and investing $150 bn over the next decade in renewable energy in order to create five million new green jobs that pay well. In his book named “Power over the climate” (Makten över klimatet) Azar can’t of course avoid mentioning the US. After being skeptical of Obama’s previous support for Coal-to-Liquid Fuel Technology, Azar summarises the power the US has had over the climate:
It is not only about the country’s huge emissions, but also about its role in the world as economic, military, political, technological and democratic superpower… When the US finally decides to reduce its emissions the global preconditions for solving the climate problem will be totally different compared to today’s situation… the US position, so far, has been shaped by the country’s natural resources and industrial structure. USA is a country with enormous coal supplies and oil companies. President Bush is an oilman, vice president Cheney too.”
Even though many now warn that Obama may not be able to fulfil all his promises in the harsh political reality, and with all the opposition of the powerful coal and oil industries, I feel more and more optimistic.
The snow is falling outside. Azar’s book convincingly shows that the economic and technological solutions are already available and the US has elected as its president an Afro-American with the middle name “Hussein” who talks about climate change and economic opportunities in the same sentence.
Can we fix it? Yes we can!
/Fredrik Moberg, Editor
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