“Global warming increases risk of civil war in Africa”
Climate change increases the likelihood of civil war in sub-Saharan Africa by over 50 percent within the next two decades, says a new study published online this week by the US Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS).
Watch the video above: "The link between climate change and the incidents of civil war in Africa is clear and strong", says David Lobell of the Woods Institute, co-author of the new study.
The new study has undertaken the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. In doing this the team of scientists from Stanford University, the University of California-Berkeley, New York University and Harvard University found strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war.
Combining these historical findings with climate model projections of future temperature trends suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths.
Agriculture the main link – The large majority of the poor in most African countries depend on agriculture for their livelihoods, and their crops are quite sensitive to small changes in temperature. So when temperatures rise, the livelihoods of many in Africa suffer greatly, and the disadvantaged become more likely to take up arms, explains co-author Edward Miguel, professor of economics at UC-Berkeley.
The authors of the new study concludes that their findings provide strong impetus to ramp up investments in African adaptation to climate change. This could for example include developing crop varieties less sensitive to extreme heat and promoting insurance plans to help protect farmers from adverse effects of the hotter climate.
